Empirical analysis of the development relationship between Shanghai shipping industry and primary industry based on VAR model

Abstract

This study employs the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to conduct an in-depth empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between Shanghai’s shipping industry and the development of the primary sector from 2002 to 2022. The findings reveal that, as a globally significant maritime hub, the development of Shanghai’s shipping industry has a notable positive impact on the growth of the primary sector, particularly in agriculture and fisheries. Through ADF unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests, a stable long-term relationship was identified between shipping industry indicators, such as container throughput and total waterborne cargo transport volume, and the output value of the primary sector. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition further reveal the critical roles and mechanisms through which the shipping industry influences the development of the primary sector. Based on these insights, the paper proposes policy recommendations aimed at strengthening the integrated development of shipping and the primary sector, promoting technological innovation in the shipping industry, optimizing the policy environment, enhancing environmental protection measures, and bolstering international cooperation. These strategies are intended to foster synergistic development between the two sectors and drive sustainable economic growth.