Empirical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution based on VAR model: A case study of Hubei Province China

Abstract

In this paper, the industrial three wastes from 1992 to 2018 in Hubei Province were collected as environmental indicators, and the per capita GDP was used as economic indicators. The study of Kuznets curve showed that industrial wastewater gradually decreased with economic growth, showing an inverted N shape; Both industrial emissions and solid waste will increase with the growth of per capita GDP, industrial waste gas shows a linear relationship, and industrial solids show an inverted U relationship. Then through the VAR model research, it is found that the response of industrial “three wastes” to per capita GDP growth in Hubei Province is positive in the short term. The long-term response of economic development in Hubei province to industrial waste gas and industrial solid waste discharge is positive and decreasing, but the short-term response to industrial wastewater discharge is negative. The variance decomposition analysis reveals that the primary environmental determinants influencing the current economic growth trajectory of Hubei Province are industrial wastewater, industrial waste gas, and industrial solid waste. Fluctuations in economic growth within Hubei Province demonstrate a stronger correlation with variations in emissions of industrial wastewater and industrial solid waste, while exerting comparatively less influence on changes in emissions of industrial waste gas.