The Impact of Housing Price Fluctuations on Family Fertility Decisions in Modern China: A Review of Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

Abstract

This study examines the intricate relationship between housing price fluctuation and household fertility decisions in present-day China, with a focus on the Guangdong- Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The article creates a theory called the “dual-effect” that is based on the existing literature and that is made up of two components: a wealth effect and a crowding out effect, in light of that the area has a historically low total fertility rate at the same time as their housing market has unpredictable swings. The literature contains significant gaps, especially with respect to the non-attention to price volatility, and the regional institutional variety. We will use a hybrid research design, consisting of surveys, interviews, and policy research. The research aims to reveal particular mechanisms through which housing market characteristics affect fertility decisions. The research results will provide a comprehensive theoretical framework. There will be evidence-based, unified policy implications on housing stability and population sustainability in a high cost urban agglomeration.