Analysis of Influential Factors of Tourism Economic Development in Hunan Province Based on Econometric Modeling

Abstract

Based on the data from 2000-2020, this study constructs a multiple linear regression model to analyze the influence of seven factors on Hunan tourism economy. The results show that the number of tourists received, the number of cultural and tourism facilities (performing arts groups + museums) are significantly positively correlated with the tourism economy, and the number of 5A scenic areas is negatively correlated. Through stepwise regression and multiple covariance test, it is found that the elasticity coefficients of the number of tourists and cultural and tourism facilities (performing arts groups + museums) on tourism income are 0.89 and 0.67 respectively, while the number of 5A scenic spots shows a negative effect of -0.23. The study puts forward targeted recommendations: 1. for the enhancement of tourists, it is recommended to innovate tourism products, strengthen precise marketing, and improve the transportation network to build an overall tourism pattern; 2. for the optimization of cultural and tourism facilities, it is necessary to dig deep into the cultural connotations of Hunan and Xiang, promote the integration of traditional culture and modern art, and improve the incentive mechanism for talent cultivation; 3. for the structural contradiction of 5A scenic spots, it is suggested that the implementation of the “quality first” policy reforms to promote the innovation of operation mode, and the technical monitoring and control of the operation mode. Promote the innovation of operation mode, and optimize the tourist experience and revenue distribution mechanism through technical monitoring. The study provides decision-making reference for Hunan tourism supply-side reform, and helps the tourism industry to develop in a high-quality and sustainable way.